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Forecast – Sunny Chance of Donuts

[Posted by Ed Stocker]

Dear Members and Constituents,
As I sat wondering what type of deliciousness was going to welcome me in the morning I thought I would take a look at the available data and see if I could forecast what to expect. Using the YTD results of the Donut Club I pieced together a picture of what we typically receive.  I determined that on average we will have 4.27 dozen donuts.  But it is likely that today we will l have exactly 4 dozen, as that happens 65% of the time.  Krispy Kreme’s are likely to have more than four dozen donuts, but, 5280, with an admittedly small statistical sampling, always shows up with 5 dozen.
In sequencing we see that Krispy Kreme’s will follow LaMar’s or Krispy Kreme, but, rarely will they be delivered the week after Winchell’s. Donuts are most likely to come from LaMar’s or Krispy Kreme.  Both brands have their followers and the arguments over which are better can be great, but that is a subject for a different email.  66% of the time one of those fine purveyors will produce the donuts we enjoy
. 
Given the available data I am forecasting we will see Four dozen donuts form LaMar’s this morning.  JP’s out of the office, but Shellie Wesson isn’t.  She has met my forecast and has delivered four dozen donuts from LaMar’s for your enjoyment.  It looks like she’s a fan of specialties, so come get one while they last.
Happy Friday,
Ed

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